Boris Johnson Exit Odds

 

Update: 07.02.22

Boris Johnson now seems likely to leave in 2022, with major UK bookmakers having shortened the odds to 1/2 recently, even amid the uproar stemming from his remarks to Sir Keir Starmer.

 

Jimmy Saville

The Prime Minister accused the Labour leader of trying to disrupt a police investigation, and alleged that Starmer, during his time as director of public prosecutions, spent too much time charging journalists and failed to prosecute Jimmy Saville. These statements incited a strong reaction.

 

Uproar

After the PM's controversial remarks, numerous Conservative MPs urged him to retract his statements, leading to a ruckus in the House of Commons. In the wake of this turmoil, four of his senior advisers, including the chiefs of communications, staff, and policy, have stepped down.

 

Betting value

The Prime Minister's position looks increasingly precarious following the resignation of four key aides. However, for those betting, there's still intrigue in the odds with a 2023 or later exit available at 7/5, while an exit from office in 2024 or beyond stands at 3/1.

 

Leadership contest

If Johnson opts not to resign voluntarily, the Conservatives may have to trigger a no-confidence vote. Although 17 Conservative MPs have submitted letters backing such a motion, a total of 54 is necessary to initiate a leadership contest.

 

Replacement

Regarding potential successors, Rishi Sunak is the bookmakers' favorite to become party leader, priced at 6/4. Close on his heels, Foreign Secretary Liz Truss has odds of 5/1, while Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt is a strong contender with 6/1 odds.

 

Boris Johnson Exit Best Odds

 

1/2  –  2022

7/5  –  2023 or later

3/1  –  2024 or later

5/1  –  2023

 

Top Candidates for Conservative Party Leadership

6/4  –  Rishi Sunak

5/1  –  Liz Truss

6/1  –  Jeremy Hunt

 

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21.01.22

Despite mounting calls for resignation over 'Partygate,' will Boris Johnson yield to pressure and step down?

 

Partying

The Prime Minister continues to be under fire for hosting gatherings at 10 Downing Street while the nation was under COVID-19 lockdown. With each unfolding scandal, Boris faces mounting pressure.

 

Pressure and support

Some within the Conservative ranks feel Boris Johnson's leadership is untenable, and a number of members demand his resignation. Yet, despite facing hostility, Boris still enjoys considerable backing, especially from his cabinet. Nonetheless, figures like Rishi Sunak offer tepid support, hinting they might challenge his leadership.

 

Exit date

Bookmakers see Boris Johnson's tenure potentially cut short by the year's end, offering odds of 1/3 for a 2022 departure, reflecting the challenges he's currently up against. Odds for Boris lasting until 2023 sit at 7/4, while staying in power until 2024 is available at 7/2.

 

Next PM

Should Boris leave office by the end of 2022—stepping down or being ousted—the question remains: who will succeed him? Rishi Sunak's chances to become the next Prime Minister are improving, with odds now at 5/4.

Liz Truss has gained traction in the betting to be the next Prime Minister, with odds cut from 10/1 to 5/1. Jeremy Hunt remains a strong contender at 7/1, and Labour leader Keir Starmer is at 10/1.

Starmer's odds have been lengthening as he struggles to gain favor, despite Labour's polling successes.

 

Next Conservative party leader

Rishi Sunak is the top pick for the party leadership role, whether or not Johnson stays as PM. His somewhat reserved backing of the Prime Minister amid the Downing Street investigation leads many to regard him as a prime candidate at odds of 6/5. Liz Truss follows with odds of 4/1, while Jeremy Hunt and Penny Mordaunt stand at 6/1 and 12/1, respectively.

 

Boris Johnson Exit Best Odds

1/3  –  2022

7/4  –  2023 or later

7/2  –  2024 or later

6/1  –  2023

 

Next Prime Minister Best Odds

5/4  –  Rishi Sunak

5/1  –  Liz Truss

7/1  –  Jeremy Hunt

10/1 –  Keir Starmer

12/1 –  Penny Mordaunt

 

Top Candidates for Conservative Party Leadership

6/5  –  Rishi Sunak

4/1  –  Liz Truss

6/1  –  Jeremy Hunt

12/1 –  Penny Mordaunt